Grain > Commentary > 2-4-2021

2/4/2021

Feb 04, 2021

2/4/2021
Corn for Feb and Mar delivery is now priced off of May futures as of today.  It was mostly quiet, two-sided trade today but March corn did print a new contract high of 558 in the early morning hours.  Corn and bean trade continues to move sideways and consolidate as we move closer to next week's WASDE report.  The weekly export sales report did give trade a shot of life with corn (7.43 mln tonnes) and wheat (643K tonnes) sales on the upper end of estimates and bean sales (824K tonnes) above expectations.  Brazil remains on track for record soybean production.  It would not be a surprise to see firms increase their production estimates, again.  Rains have continued to delay harvest and the 2nd crop plantings which may result in a delay of 2nd crop export shipments this summer.  Trade estimates for next week's WASDE report were released today.  With no signs of slowed export demand as a result of higher prices, I am expecting this report to be neutral-slightly bullish.  Trade estimates for the carryout in corn averaged 1.392 billion bu. (1.552 carryout in January) and 123 million bu. of beans (140 mln in January).  It does feel like trade has already worked a cut in carryout into our futures, sharpen your pencil between now and the Tuesday report release to consider a new crop corn sale.  Locking in $4 cash new crop corn isn't a mistake.

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