2/3/2022

Feb 03, 2022


2/3/2022
Soybeans took a breather today, trading as much as 15 lower overnight but received a bit of a boost from the weekly export sales report to go into the coffee break with some upwards momentum.  Some fast-buying right at the 8:30 open saw the March 22 contract touch 1560'0 but we failed to make a new contract high for the first time in 6 trading days.  Soybeans covered a fair amount of ground today to a modest, mixed finish.  Corn has been able to trail the beans on their rally but has been a very reluctant follower.  We've mentioned that corn demand has been sluggish for a while and it feels like the market is finally starting to realize that.  Ethanol margins are slim/breakeven and export business is routine.  At 8am this morning, the USDA confirmed the cancellation of 380,000 tonnes of corn to China for the 2021/22 marketing year (about 15 million bushels).  It's not uncommon to see cancellations this early in the year but the market was definitely not prepared for it.  We will likely see more cancellations as we continue on but it wouldn't shock me to see a sale come back on a price break.  Futures are well over-bought for corn and soybeans and need a correction.  Weekly export sales were on the upper end of trade estimates for both corn and soybeans with 1.175 mln tonnes of corn and 1.096 mln tonnes of soybeans.  Wheat sales were a dismal 58k tonnes, well underperforming the 200k tonne bottom estimate.  The February WASDE report is due out this coming Wednesday, feels like it was eons ago we got our final production numbers for the 2021 crop.  Trade should continue to settle going into next week's report.

Some slight degradation on the drought monitor over the past month.
drought-monitor.jpg

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.