2/29/2024

Corn and soybeans tested the downside early Thursday after spending the first part of the week in higher trade. Soybeans set fresh lows for the move, down as much as 17 cents, before recovering to finish 1-4 cents in the red. Corn kept its trend of higher lows for the week intact despite trading 5 cents lower and closing the day mixed with minimal gains. May corn did not reach high enough to test resistance at its 20-day moving average but just the fact it was able to recover off of lower trade and hold is encouraging. With the calendar changing to March, the next couple sessions will tell us if what we have seen so far this week is just profit taking by the funds or that the market has truly set a significant low and we've bottomed-out (for now). Corn export sales last week were just above average and at the high end of the trade range, netting out at 1.082 mln tonnes sold. Soybean sales continue to sputter on the low side with only 160k tonnes sold. 2023/24 export sales volumes are relatively close to what the USDA is forecasting. What we need is some extra business to help erode our current ending stocks on the balance sheets.

This week’s price action has put together a technically sound setup for a further rally in corn. To start the week, we saw a strong key reversal higher off a fresh low on Monday. Yesterday, we were able to trade through and hold above the 10-day moving average. Finally, today’s trade put a doji candle on the charts which it appears the fresh length protected their positions. If May corn can trade above and close last week’s high of 434’0, that weekly reversal would be a huge indicator that we have set significant low.