2/28/2024

Feb 28, 2024


Corn climbs higher for the third consecutive day and soybeans put up modest gains of 4-5 cents on Wednesday.  Corn was setting fresh intraday highs going into the close while soybeans peaked around mid-day.  There were no big changes fundamentally for grains and this week's move has been motivated more by money-flow.  After going to a record large net short position, the managed money crowd appears to be taking some profit for the month end timeframe.  We saw a similar pattern in the final days of January but there seems to be more of a buzz surrounding this week's market and possibly some traders coming off the sidelines and getting involved.  Trade volume has improved recently after many sat idle since the beginning of the year, not allowing themselves to be a victim of the managed money shorting.  Weekly ethanol production was down 5,000 barrels/day to 1.078 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks grew 500,000 barrels to 26.0 mln bbls.

May corn moved seamlessly through its 10-day moving average, closing above it.  The obvious next point of resistance is our 20-day moving average at 437, assuming we can continue to hold above the 10-day.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.