2/28/2023

Feb 28, 2023


2/28/2023
Not a good day in the grain markets today.  Corn support was at 6.35 futures and the market failed to hold that level and finished at the lows of the day at 6.30.  That opens the door for some more downside pressure down to the gap we have sitting at 5.95 futures.  My fingers are crossed that we can find some exports at these lower prices, which might get us to bounce back in the coming weeks.  The processor likely needs more coverage when the farmer hits the field to plant and lower prices will slow farmer selling for now.  Beans were also drug lower today as they tried to hold their own the last few days, but today they felt the pressure the as well.  Support on May beans is at 14.76 futures, which is only 3 cents away currently.  If that level doesn't hold it opens the door to the November low at 14.19 futures.  The main reason for the bean pressure today is the advancing Brazilian harvest and offers from that country that are well below the United States. A lack of Chinese buying and news they may be washing out of Argentine purchases added to the negative tone. Crush margins remain negative in China and these cancellations would not be surprising.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.