2/28/2023

Feb 28, 2023


2/28/2023
Not a good day in the grain markets today.  Corn support was at 6.35 futures and the market failed to hold that level and finished at the lows of the day at 6.30.  That opens the door for some more downside pressure down to the gap we have sitting at 5.95 futures.  My fingers are crossed that we can find some exports at these lower prices, which might get us to bounce back in the coming weeks.  The processor likely needs more coverage when the farmer hits the field to plant and lower prices will slow farmer selling for now.  Beans were also drug lower today as they tried to hold their own the last few days, but today they felt the pressure the as well.  Support on May beans is at 14.76 futures, which is only 3 cents away currently.  If that level doesn't hold it opens the door to the November low at 14.19 futures.  The main reason for the bean pressure today is the advancing Brazilian harvest and offers from that country that are well below the United States. A lack of Chinese buying and news they may be washing out of Argentine purchases added to the negative tone. Crush margins remain negative in China and these cancellations would not be surprising.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.