2/28/2022

Feb 28, 2022


2/28/2022
Opening calls for Sunday night were sharply higher after a weekend that offered no market stabilizing news or headlines. The saying goes "buy the rumor, sell the fact" and trade was all about adding length to positions as those active in the market continue to assume Ukrainian ag exports will be shut down for some time. This could be another opportunity to potentially pocket some market risk premium that some may have missed last week. May 22 and July 22 corn contracts traded limit higher today with May closing at the limit. Soybeans traded 40-70 higher mid-session today but some likely profit took the top end off of the market and closed the day 20-50 higher but well below the highs. The USDA announced 2 soybean sales this morning at 8 a.m. that included 136,000 tonnes to China in the 2022/23 marketing year and 120,000 tonnes to unknown in the 2021/22 marketing year. Weekly export inspections were right in line with trade expectations with 1.544 million tonnes of corn and 735k tonnes of beans inspected for export. Corn export shipment pace to date is short of the USDA's target by 100 million bushels compared to 127 million bushels the previous week and continues to trim the deficit. Soybean export shipments to date fall short of the USDA's target by 22 million bushels compared to the previous week's marker of 13 million bushels short. There’s no shortage of volitility, continue to work sell orders at bench mark prices and average up your sales.

Big ranges the past few days. Would be healthy for trade to begin consolidating and allow our market an opportunity to evaluate the actual value of grains at these levels.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.