2/28/2022

Feb 28, 2022


2/28/2022
Opening calls for Sunday night were sharply higher after a weekend that offered no market stabilizing news or headlines. The saying goes "buy the rumor, sell the fact" and trade was all about adding length to positions as those active in the market continue to assume Ukrainian ag exports will be shut down for some time. This could be another opportunity to potentially pocket some market risk premium that some may have missed last week. May 22 and July 22 corn contracts traded limit higher today with May closing at the limit. Soybeans traded 40-70 higher mid-session today but some likely profit took the top end off of the market and closed the day 20-50 higher but well below the highs. The USDA announced 2 soybean sales this morning at 8 a.m. that included 136,000 tonnes to China in the 2022/23 marketing year and 120,000 tonnes to unknown in the 2021/22 marketing year. Weekly export inspections were right in line with trade expectations with 1.544 million tonnes of corn and 735k tonnes of beans inspected for export. Corn export shipment pace to date is short of the USDA's target by 100 million bushels compared to 127 million bushels the previous week and continues to trim the deficit. Soybean export shipments to date fall short of the USDA's target by 22 million bushels compared to the previous week's marker of 13 million bushels short. There’s no shortage of volitility, continue to work sell orders at bench mark prices and average up your sales.

Big ranges the past few days. Would be healthy for trade to begin consolidating and allow our market an opportunity to evaluate the actual value of grains at these levels.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.