2/27/2023

Feb 27, 2023


2/27/2023
Grains saw some brief trade higher during the overnight hours but quickly gave away to selling after the 8:30 re-opening. With very little fresh news available for corn and soybeans, wheat was the price leader today. This weekend saw much needed rains move across parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas. More is needed to make those crops, yet, but the significant rainfall brought a sense of relief. With large snowfalls in the northern plains last week and a good rain in the heart of the dustbowl, the weather patterns are possibly shifting following a drought-ridden 2022. Offering no help was the weekly export inspections. With 573k tonnes shipped last week, corn shipments were within expectations but remain limited. We continue to wait for an improvement in corn volumes. Soybeans missed low with 691k tonnes inspected. This number was below average for the week and was the first bad week for soybeans we've seen in a long time but still above what is needed weekly to reach the USDA export number.

December corn has held above its significant August low. I expect some corrective buying come in over the next couple days.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.