2/27/2023

Feb 27, 2023


2/27/2023
Grains saw some brief trade higher during the overnight hours but quickly gave away to selling after the 8:30 re-opening. With very little fresh news available for corn and soybeans, wheat was the price leader today. This weekend saw much needed rains move across parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas. More is needed to make those crops, yet, but the significant rainfall brought a sense of relief. With large snowfalls in the northern plains last week and a good rain in the heart of the dustbowl, the weather patterns are possibly shifting following a drought-ridden 2022. Offering no help was the weekly export inspections. With 573k tonnes shipped last week, corn shipments were within expectations but remain limited. We continue to wait for an improvement in corn volumes. Soybeans missed low with 691k tonnes inspected. This number was below average for the week and was the first bad week for soybeans we've seen in a long time but still above what is needed weekly to reach the USDA export number.

December corn has held above its significant August low. I expect some corrective buying come in over the next couple days.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.