2/26/2024

A sign of life in the markets as we near the end of the month? The main headline today was the total managed money positions for corn, soybeans, and wheat eclipsing their previous record large net short which stood at -538,727 from April of 2019. Trade managed to find a bid around mid-day which reversed corn to end the day 6-8 higher and soybeans recovered from 7 lower to finish 1-4 cents higher out through September. On the positive side, last week's export shipments performed well. Corn out-performed the trade estimate posting 1.242 mln tonnes shipped. Soybeans were mid-range and did decent relative to the week on the calendar with 975k tonnes shipped. With those nice figures from last week, grains also improved their seasonal pace. Marketing year to date, corn shipments are now ahead of the required pace to meet the USDA target by 27 million bushels, up from 15 million bushels last week. Soybean shipments are now short of the USDA target by 17 million bushels versus short by 22 million bushels the previous week.

A key reversal higher and a nice set up for a potential rally in corn. Since harvest completed, the biggest rally on the lead month in corn was 37 cents from the end of Nov thru mid-Dec.  Follow-through buying showing up tomorrow is important or we will continue setting lows.