2/25/2022

Feb 25, 2022


2/25/2022
A wild week in the markets came to a close with corn near limit lower and beans ranging from 30-70 cents lower.  Overnight trade made a valiant effort at a run higher after ending Thursday well off of the highs.  Trade quickly turned negative and a broad sell-off was triggered across most commodities, virtually eliminating any kind of a war risk premium that we had added earlier in the week.  Weekly net export sales were slightly better than trade expected with 1.041 mln tonnes of corn, 1.233 mln tonnes of soybeans, and 517k tonnes of wheat sold last week.  The USDA announced soybean sales of 334,000 tonnes tonnes to China for 2022/23 and 285,000 tonnes to unknown split between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  Historically, live military activity has been a good indicator of a market cycle change.  A lot of money has come out of stocks and equities and been pumped into commodities the first two months of this year, we may be seeing the start of a new trend.  If corn and soybean futures reverse trend lower, it would line up rather well with seasonal trends, as well.  A huge down day like this does not necessarily mean our highs are in for the year but there are no guarantees in the market and anything can happen.  The world is now focusing more attention to China and what they do with Taiwan.  China taking military action on the small island nation could provoke economic sanctions from the U.S., essentially bringing a halt to corn and soybean exports.  Weekly cash closes in Murdock: cash corn 2 cents lower, new crop corn 23 cents lower, cash soybeans 19 down cents, and new crop soybeans down 48 cents.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.