2/25/2021

Old crop corn was 5 lower and, after setting next contract highs, old crop beans were trading 10 higher in the last hour of overnight trade.  The USDA gave trade an ugly weekly export sales report at 7:30am, sending us into a nose dive going into the morning break.  Liquidation continued into the day session open with nearby corn trading 17 lower and beans 32 lower.  If we are as tight on soybean stocks as the USDA says we are, the market should already be prepared for a weekly sales report that shows zero bean sales at some point.  It has happened before.  Commodities didn't have much support from the outside markets today, either.  The DOW and Nasdaq were currently trading about 300 points lower at the time this commentary was posted.  Profit taking and repositioning seems likely after a good month.  In some odd price action today, the dollar index, gold, and silver were all lower, as well.  Brazil's slow harvest has delayed a large amount of bean exports to China and Chinese crushers are already drawing out of state stockpiles.  They will most likely be looking to rebuild that inventory quickly.  Tomorrow we will get our final average crop insurance pricing.  Argentina crop ratings were mixed this week, corn improved to 30% g/e (24% last week), beans lowered to 15% g/e (19% last week, 69% last year).