2/24/2023

Feb 24, 2023


2/24/2023
Corn continued on its path lower during the Friday session, including the December 23 contract printing its lowest mark since mid-August. Soybeans attempted to sustain some higher trade throughout the session but the 7-10 cents lower trade in corn and wheat ranging between 17-25 cents down was too much. This week's price action has been mostly money driven with funds selling off length and spec money playing the short side. The faster we go down, the faster we find a bid, and this 30-cent price break in corn could be helpful in stirring up some fresh U.S. export demand. It's already rumored that China may be back in the market. The weekly sales report showed U.S. export sales were fairly vanilla last week. Corn and soybean sales totals were mid-range of their expectations with 823k tonnes of corn and 545k tonnes of soybeans sold last week. Corn export sales to date are short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 242 million bushels, unchanged from last week. Soybean export sales to date exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA target by 53 million bushels, down from 61 million last week.

Some very good improvement in the drought monitor since harvest.
drought-monitor.png

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.