2/24/2023

Feb 24, 2023


2/24/2023
Corn continued on its path lower during the Friday session, including the December 23 contract printing its lowest mark since mid-August. Soybeans attempted to sustain some higher trade throughout the session but the 7-10 cents lower trade in corn and wheat ranging between 17-25 cents down was too much. This week's price action has been mostly money driven with funds selling off length and spec money playing the short side. The faster we go down, the faster we find a bid, and this 30-cent price break in corn could be helpful in stirring up some fresh U.S. export demand. It's already rumored that China may be back in the market. The weekly sales report showed U.S. export sales were fairly vanilla last week. Corn and soybean sales totals were mid-range of their expectations with 823k tonnes of corn and 545k tonnes of soybeans sold last week. Corn export sales to date are short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 242 million bushels, unchanged from last week. Soybean export sales to date exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA target by 53 million bushels, down from 61 million last week.

Some very good improvement in the drought monitor since harvest.
drought-monitor.png

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.