2/24/2021

Another day with lots of green on the board as both the grain and livestock sectors had money firmly on the buying side.  Corn and beans shared a pattern similar to yesterday; strongly higher overnight and profit taking after the morning open, but today we were able to recover mid-morning as the money was there with follow up buying.  What makes this recent rally interesting is that we haven't had much of anything fundamental to support it.  Yes, Brazil's harvest is slow but they are still forecasted for record soybean and corn production.  We have yet to see China re-enter the market as expected after the conclusion of their Lunar New Year.  The USDA's outlook does show some tightness to corn and soybean supply going into 2022 but it’s not necessarily an official report number.  Weekly ethanol production was down 27.7% from the week prior with numerous plants shut down due to the frigid temperatures.  Many sold the liquid natural gas they had on-hand for profit instead of producing ethanol.  Trade didn't even flinch at this number today.  Despite the negatives, spec and fund money wants to be long right now and corn still has some potential on this move to continue higher.  Old crop beans can still take a shot at their contract highs but already feel overbought.  No matter what happens next, I'm sure it won't be lacking in excitement.