2/24/2021

Feb 24, 2021


2/24/2021
Another day with lots of green on the board as both the grain and livestock sectors had money firmly on the buying side.  Corn and beans shared a pattern similar to yesterday; strongly higher overnight and profit taking after the morning open, but today we were able to recover mid-morning as the money was there with follow up buying.  What makes this recent rally interesting is that we haven't had much of anything fundamental to support it.  Yes, Brazil's harvest is slow but they are still forecasted for record soybean and corn production.  We have yet to see China re-enter the market as expected after the conclusion of their Lunar New Year.  The USDA's outlook does show some tightness to corn and soybean supply going into 2022 but it’s not necessarily an official report number.  Weekly ethanol production was down 27.7% from the week prior with numerous plants shut down due to the frigid temperatures.  Many sold the liquid natural gas they had on-hand for profit instead of producing ethanol.  Trade didn't even flinch at this number today.  Despite the negatives, spec and fund money wants to be long right now and corn still has some potential on this move to continue higher.  Old crop beans can still take a shot at their contract highs but already feel overbought.  No matter what happens next, I'm sure it won't be lacking in excitement.
 

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.