2/24/2021

Feb 24, 2021


2/24/2021
Another day with lots of green on the board as both the grain and livestock sectors had money firmly on the buying side.  Corn and beans shared a pattern similar to yesterday; strongly higher overnight and profit taking after the morning open, but today we were able to recover mid-morning as the money was there with follow up buying.  What makes this recent rally interesting is that we haven't had much of anything fundamental to support it.  Yes, Brazil's harvest is slow but they are still forecasted for record soybean and corn production.  We have yet to see China re-enter the market as expected after the conclusion of their Lunar New Year.  The USDA's outlook does show some tightness to corn and soybean supply going into 2022 but it’s not necessarily an official report number.  Weekly ethanol production was down 27.7% from the week prior with numerous plants shut down due to the frigid temperatures.  Many sold the liquid natural gas they had on-hand for profit instead of producing ethanol.  Trade didn't even flinch at this number today.  Despite the negatives, spec and fund money wants to be long right now and corn still has some potential on this move to continue higher.  Old crop beans can still take a shot at their contract highs but already feel overbought.  No matter what happens next, I'm sure it won't be lacking in excitement.
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.