Grain > Commentary > 2-23-2022

2/23/2022

Feb 23, 2022

2/23/2022
Wednesday brought us another incredible day in the markets. Overnight trade was subtle in comparison to the day session. All classes of wheat posted double digit gains on the day with Kansas City wheat leading the way, trading at levels not seen since 2012 and has real potential to trade at, and above, the $10.00 level for the first time since 2008. We really didn't have any new headlines or news to trade today as the market continues to beat the South American weather and Ukraine/Russia conflict drums. The USDA made a sale announcement this morning of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2022/23. This market has been on replay since the beginning of the year and there's not much to say about it at this point besides enjoy the ride. Work slow with your new crop sales. With this type of volatility, corn price targets spread apart by 35-50 cents and soybean sales targets staggered by 75 cents or more are not out of the question.

Soybeans took out last year’s high of 1667’2 today, we are now trading at price levels not seen since 2012. The market is currently expressing almost no signs of weakness. If we can manufacture a weekly close above last year’s high, it definitely opens to the door to possibly new all-time highs this year.
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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.