2/23/2021

Feb 23, 2021


2/23/2021
New crop corn and beans both made new highs today, but finished off those levels by 5-10 cents.  New crop beans were the popular item today being sold.  Old crop highs got within 13 cents on corn and 5 cents on beans, but there was little farmer movement of old crop today.  There was a combination of reasons we could have been higher today, but nothing major in my opinion happened.  The new crop futures continue to work to buy acres, which we need, especially soybeans.  The old crop futures continue to try and figure out where our actually supply is at and assume we will continue to see more demand.  Bean oil was the big winner today up over $1 and inching closer to $50.  South American weather remains an issue as Brazil remains too wet and Argentina remains too dry.  I am starting to see more and more thoughts of drought in Argentina.  So, another words were trading someone else’s weather and that is always volatile. As if we don't have enough fun happening in our own markets.  Buckle in and continue to scale up on new crop sales a little bit at a time.    
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.