2/22/2022

Feb 22, 2022


2/22/2022
It was full risk-on in most commodities today following a weekend that featured ever-increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia.  President Biden also announced new economic sanctions on Russia shortly before market close with the market setting new contract highs across a plethora of commodities in the final 15 minutes of trade.  Trade is putting a huge risk premium on grains assuming that Ukrainian exports will be disrupted but the area in question is in far east region of the country and some distance away from major growing areas and the export facilities on the Black Sea coast.  Lost in the chaos today were the weekly export inspections with corn inspections at 1.577 million tonnes and soybeans at 975k tonnes, both within range of trade expectations.  There were also two export sales announced by the USDA at 8 a.m. this morning that included 120,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Most common question asked: How high are soybeans going to go?  Until crushers stop making money in soybean meal, oil, or both.  With another big rally in the works over the past 4 days in soybeans, corn is now on the move to buy acres.  Continue to scale up your sales as we ride this wave, taking bites of this market on the way up.

plot.jpg

Read More News

Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.