2/22/2022

Feb 22, 2022


2/22/2022
It was full risk-on in most commodities today following a weekend that featured ever-increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia.  President Biden also announced new economic sanctions on Russia shortly before market close with the market setting new contract highs across a plethora of commodities in the final 15 minutes of trade.  Trade is putting a huge risk premium on grains assuming that Ukrainian exports will be disrupted but the area in question is in far east region of the country and some distance away from major growing areas and the export facilities on the Black Sea coast.  Lost in the chaos today were the weekly export inspections with corn inspections at 1.577 million tonnes and soybeans at 975k tonnes, both within range of trade expectations.  There were also two export sales announced by the USDA at 8 a.m. this morning that included 120,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Most common question asked: How high are soybeans going to go?  Until crushers stop making money in soybean meal, oil, or both.  With another big rally in the works over the past 4 days in soybeans, corn is now on the move to buy acres.  Continue to scale up your sales as we ride this wave, taking bites of this market on the way up.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.