2/22/2022

Feb 22, 2022


2/22/2022
It was full risk-on in most commodities today following a weekend that featured ever-increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia.  President Biden also announced new economic sanctions on Russia shortly before market close with the market setting new contract highs across a plethora of commodities in the final 15 minutes of trade.  Trade is putting a huge risk premium on grains assuming that Ukrainian exports will be disrupted but the area in question is in far east region of the country and some distance away from major growing areas and the export facilities on the Black Sea coast.  Lost in the chaos today were the weekly export inspections with corn inspections at 1.577 million tonnes and soybeans at 975k tonnes, both within range of trade expectations.  There were also two export sales announced by the USDA at 8 a.m. this morning that included 120,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Most common question asked: How high are soybeans going to go?  Until crushers stop making money in soybean meal, oil, or both.  With another big rally in the works over the past 4 days in soybeans, corn is now on the move to buy acres.  Continue to scale up your sales as we ride this wave, taking bites of this market on the way up.

plot.jpg

Read More News

Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.