2/20/2024

Feb 20, 2024


Soybeans gapped higher on the Sunday night open and a portion of those gaps remained open on the charts at the close on Monday.  Price action in corn was interesting to those who paid attention and it was a good little test for both sides.  After trading out to 5 higher, corn fell back to 3 lower before finding another bid and pushing back to end the day 2-3 cents higher.  We had two flash sale announcements from the USDA this morning.  First: 155,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Japan in 2024/25; secondly: 228,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 2023/24.  The weekly export inspections were in right in line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 919k tonnes last week, increasing corn's pace to 15 a million-bushel surplus over the USDA target.  Soybean inspections came in at 1.186 mln tonnes which improved their shipment pace from a 25-million-bushel deficit to a 22-million-bushel deficit.  We are starting to see some positive sentiment make its way into the market after the past two trading sessions but we need to some follow-through buying this week to create the foundation for a rally.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.