Grain > Commentary > 2-20-2024

2/20/2024

Feb 20, 2024

Soybeans gapped higher on the Sunday night open and a portion of those gaps remained open on the charts at the close on Monday.  Price action in corn was interesting to those who paid attention and it was a good little test for both sides.  After trading out to 5 higher, corn fell back to 3 lower before finding another bid and pushing back to end the day 2-3 cents higher.  We had two flash sale announcements from the USDA this morning.  First: 155,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Japan in 2024/25; secondly: 228,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 2023/24.  The weekly export inspections were in right in line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 919k tonnes last week, increasing corn's pace to 15 a million-bushel surplus over the USDA target.  Soybean inspections came in at 1.186 mln tonnes which improved their shipment pace from a 25-million-bushel deficit to a 22-million-bushel deficit.  We are starting to see some positive sentiment make its way into the market after the past two trading sessions but we need to some follow-through buying this week to create the foundation for a rally.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.