Grain > Commentary > 2-20-2024

2/20/2024

Feb 20, 2024

Soybeans gapped higher on the Sunday night open and a portion of those gaps remained open on the charts at the close on Monday.  Price action in corn was interesting to those who paid attention and it was a good little test for both sides.  After trading out to 5 higher, corn fell back to 3 lower before finding another bid and pushing back to end the day 2-3 cents higher.  We had two flash sale announcements from the USDA this morning.  First: 155,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Japan in 2024/25; secondly: 228,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 2023/24.  The weekly export inspections were in right in line with expectations.  Corn shipments totaled 919k tonnes last week, increasing corn's pace to 15 a million-bushel surplus over the USDA target.  Soybean inspections came in at 1.186 mln tonnes which improved their shipment pace from a 25-million-bushel deficit to a 22-million-bushel deficit.  We are starting to see some positive sentiment make its way into the market after the past two trading sessions but we need to some follow-through buying this week to create the foundation for a rally.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.