2/2/2024

Feb 02, 2024


Friday didn't offer us anything fresh in the markets.  Corn was quietly down in the range of 2-4 cents and soybeans settle 13-15 cents lower and just above fresh lows as the market continues to price in record production and favorable conditions in Brazil.  Following three years of traditionally high prices, incredible production in the U.S., and added acres in South America there is a plentiful supply of grain around the globe.  Near-record prices of soybeans in the U.S. has created demand destruction and allowed Brazil to undercut our exports.  Corn usage has increased year-over-year during this market cycle but big acres and record yield in the U.S. has given end users a plentiful supply.  Overall outlook for the markets continues to be lower.  Extended forecasts have been consistent in favoring an early spring.  Average planting pace, average growing conditions, and average yields for corn and soybeans is not supportive to current price levels.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.