Grain > Commentary > 2-2-2021

2/2/2021

Feb 02, 2021

2/2/2021
Today's trade was firmly lower in a quiet way and did not offer much for news.  Overnight, corn was trading within a few cents of the contract highs we set the day prior and looked poised to challenge that mark.  Beans continued their slow slide lower, finishing 11 under yesterday's close.  I currently do not see a need to do any type of panic selling but there's no shame in pricing $5 cash corn and upper-$12 cash beans.  Combining the recent lower trade with consolidation in the daily ranges in both corn and beans appears to be more risk-off and re-positioning in anticipation of harvest picking up pace in Brazil after some heavy rains.  Early Brazil soybean harvest remains well behind the 5-year average.  There was a daily export sale of 115,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico.  December soybean crush numbers were released today showing 193.75 million bushels of beans crushed in Dec, which is the 2nd highest month volume on record.  Some attention is starting to turn towards the February WASDE report which will be released next Tuesday, Feb 9.  Some trade estimates are showing extremely bullish carryout numbers of 1.1 billion bushel of corn and 100 million bushels of beans.  While the USDA has shown in the past that anything is possible, a large cut in corn carryout from one month to another isn't typical to their style.  
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.