Grain > Commentary > 2-2-2021

2/2/2021

Feb 02, 2021

2/2/2021
Today's trade was firmly lower in a quiet way and did not offer much for news.  Overnight, corn was trading within a few cents of the contract highs we set the day prior and looked poised to challenge that mark.  Beans continued their slow slide lower, finishing 11 under yesterday's close.  I currently do not see a need to do any type of panic selling but there's no shame in pricing $5 cash corn and upper-$12 cash beans.  Combining the recent lower trade with consolidation in the daily ranges in both corn and beans appears to be more risk-off and re-positioning in anticipation of harvest picking up pace in Brazil after some heavy rains.  Early Brazil soybean harvest remains well behind the 5-year average.  There was a daily export sale of 115,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico.  December soybean crush numbers were released today showing 193.75 million bushels of beans crushed in Dec, which is the 2nd highest month volume on record.  Some attention is starting to turn towards the February WASDE report which will be released next Tuesday, Feb 9.  Some trade estimates are showing extremely bullish carryout numbers of 1.1 billion bushel of corn and 100 million bushels of beans.  While the USDA has shown in the past that anything is possible, a large cut in corn carryout from one month to another isn't typical to their style.  
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.