2/18/2022

Feb 18, 2022


2/18/2022
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all finish the week on an up-note.  December 22 corn and November 22 soybeans edged out their previous contract highs with the old crop contracts looking poised to challenge their high marks next week.  There will be no markets on Monday in observance of President's Day so trade gets a long weekend to watch for any developments involving the potential Russia/Ukraine conflict or South American weather.  The USDA announced confirmed the sale of 198,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown with 66,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year and the balance for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year.  We always assume "unknown" is China and these sales split between marketing years is a good way for them to assure supply if Brazil's crop comes in even shorter than expected.  It's also easy for them to cancel and roll the entire purchase into the U.S. new crop period.  Closing this week above the 1600'0 level on multiple soybean contracts is a big step for soybeans to continue rallying, it will be very interesting to see if we can hold these values after the long weekend.  We hope everyone has a wonderful weekend and make sure you don't blow away.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.