2/18/2022

Feb 18, 2022


2/18/2022
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all finish the week on an up-note.  December 22 corn and November 22 soybeans edged out their previous contract highs with the old crop contracts looking poised to challenge their high marks next week.  There will be no markets on Monday in observance of President's Day so trade gets a long weekend to watch for any developments involving the potential Russia/Ukraine conflict or South American weather.  The USDA announced confirmed the sale of 198,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown with 66,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year and the balance for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year.  We always assume "unknown" is China and these sales split between marketing years is a good way for them to assure supply if Brazil's crop comes in even shorter than expected.  It's also easy for them to cancel and roll the entire purchase into the U.S. new crop period.  Closing this week above the 1600'0 level on multiple soybean contracts is a big step for soybeans to continue rallying, it will be very interesting to see if we can hold these values after the long weekend.  We hope everyone has a wonderful weekend and make sure you don't blow away.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.