Grain > Commentary > 2-18-2021

2/18/2021

Feb 18, 2021

2/18/2021
Both corn and beans were quietly lower through both sessions with another day that lacked any real trading news.  The USDA 2021 Outlook Forum was held this morning with the chief economist for the USDA providing our first estimates for the coming crop year.  It is estimated 92 million acres of corn and 90 million acres of beans will be planted in 2021.  Using some rough math, this would leave our corn carryout basically unchanged at 1.525 and soybean carryout at .214.  With new crop corn futures at 460 and above, it’s hard for me to believe we will only add 1.2 million acres of corn production in 2021.  Weekly ethanol production was 911k barrels/day.  This is down 26k bpd from the week prior and the 3rd lowest week of the marketing year.  This would be the perfect time to consider additional of new crop sales.  Both new crop corn and beans are still within shouting distance of their contract highs and any hint at large plantings will turn this into a weather market, only.  Beans were down on rain in Brazil overnight but with Chinese New Year holiday complete, trade will begin to look for additional sales to China.  Only 65 million bushels of new sales are needed to meet the USDA forecast for soybean exports.  

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.