Grain > Commentary > 2-18-2021

2/18/2021

Feb 18, 2021

2/18/2021
Both corn and beans were quietly lower through both sessions with another day that lacked any real trading news.  The USDA 2021 Outlook Forum was held this morning with the chief economist for the USDA providing our first estimates for the coming crop year.  It is estimated 92 million acres of corn and 90 million acres of beans will be planted in 2021.  Using some rough math, this would leave our corn carryout basically unchanged at 1.525 and soybean carryout at .214.  With new crop corn futures at 460 and above, it’s hard for me to believe we will only add 1.2 million acres of corn production in 2021.  Weekly ethanol production was 911k barrels/day.  This is down 26k bpd from the week prior and the 3rd lowest week of the marketing year.  This would be the perfect time to consider additional of new crop sales.  Both new crop corn and beans are still within shouting distance of their contract highs and any hint at large plantings will turn this into a weather market, only.  Beans were down on rain in Brazil overnight but with Chinese New Year holiday complete, trade will begin to look for additional sales to China.  Only 65 million bushels of new sales are needed to meet the USDA forecast for soybean exports.  

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5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.