2/17/2021

Feb 17, 2021


2/17/2021
Corn and beans were both slightly higher for most of the overnight but faded going into the morning break.  Overall, today, there was limited fresh news to spark any general buying interest.  Corn was able to trade 1-2 higher for most of the day on support from strong energy and crude oil markets.  Weather has also offered some support to the corn market this week.  Forecasts show Argentina returning to a dry pattern over the next week and the widespread cold in the US has limited grain movement over the past 10 days.  Soybean trade was weaker today with conditions in Brazil mostly favorable.  As a whole, Brazil soybean harvest is still slower than normal (8% harvested vs 20% avg) but the combines in Brazil are rolling and their harvest continues to grow.  The wheat sector gave back most of yesterday's big gains with most traders skeptical to the extent of the winter wheat crop damage in the US.  Overall, the US economy is showing signs of improvement which will provide some underlying support to the commodities.  The US drought monitor has not changed much over the past couple months and will continue to play a bigger role in the markets as we move closer to planting.
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.