2/17/2021

Feb 17, 2021


2/17/2021
Corn and beans were both slightly higher for most of the overnight but faded going into the morning break.  Overall, today, there was limited fresh news to spark any general buying interest.  Corn was able to trade 1-2 higher for most of the day on support from strong energy and crude oil markets.  Weather has also offered some support to the corn market this week.  Forecasts show Argentina returning to a dry pattern over the next week and the widespread cold in the US has limited grain movement over the past 10 days.  Soybean trade was weaker today with conditions in Brazil mostly favorable.  As a whole, Brazil soybean harvest is still slower than normal (8% harvested vs 20% avg) but the combines in Brazil are rolling and their harvest continues to grow.  The wheat sector gave back most of yesterday's big gains with most traders skeptical to the extent of the winter wheat crop damage in the US.  Overall, the US economy is showing signs of improvement which will provide some underlying support to the commodities.  The US drought monitor has not changed much over the past couple months and will continue to play a bigger role in the markets as we move closer to planting.
 

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.