2/17/2021

Feb 17, 2021


2/17/2021
Corn and beans were both slightly higher for most of the overnight but faded going into the morning break.  Overall, today, there was limited fresh news to spark any general buying interest.  Corn was able to trade 1-2 higher for most of the day on support from strong energy and crude oil markets.  Weather has also offered some support to the corn market this week.  Forecasts show Argentina returning to a dry pattern over the next week and the widespread cold in the US has limited grain movement over the past 10 days.  Soybean trade was weaker today with conditions in Brazil mostly favorable.  As a whole, Brazil soybean harvest is still slower than normal (8% harvested vs 20% avg) but the combines in Brazil are rolling and their harvest continues to grow.  The wheat sector gave back most of yesterday's big gains with most traders skeptical to the extent of the winter wheat crop damage in the US.  Overall, the US economy is showing signs of improvement which will provide some underlying support to the commodities.  The US drought monitor has not changed much over the past couple months and will continue to play a bigger role in the markets as we move closer to planting.
 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.