Grain > Commentary > 2-16-2024

2/16/2024

Feb 16, 2024

Soybeans traded solely higher and lead the way into the weekend with some nice bounces.  Corn was trading up to 4 higher early on but ended Friday with March and May 24 contracts slightly lower and 1-2 cents higher further out.  The overall vibe in the market was positive and it feels like traders might be ready to call the bluff of the managed money crowd's huge short positions.  Options activity suggested that maybe the tides were beginning to turn.  Historically, these record-sized short positions do not hold very incredibly long and we are close to meeting the expiration timeframe of what we have seen in the past.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today.  We did overlook yesterday's NOPA crush report.  Jan 2024 crush came in at 185.78 mln bushels.  That was below the trade guess of 189.928 mln bushels but still a record high for January of any year.  Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.507 bln pounds, well above the average analyst estimate of 1.409 bln.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.