Grain > Commentary > 2-16-2024

2/16/2024

Feb 16, 2024

Soybeans traded solely higher and lead the way into the weekend with some nice bounces.  Corn was trading up to 4 higher early on but ended Friday with March and May 24 contracts slightly lower and 1-2 cents higher further out.  The overall vibe in the market was positive and it feels like traders might be ready to call the bluff of the managed money crowd's huge short positions.  Options activity suggested that maybe the tides were beginning to turn.  Historically, these record-sized short positions do not hold very incredibly long and we are close to meeting the expiration timeframe of what we have seen in the past.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today.  We did overlook yesterday's NOPA crush report.  Jan 2024 crush came in at 185.78 mln bushels.  That was below the trade guess of 189.928 mln bushels but still a record high for January of any year.  Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.507 bln pounds, well above the average analyst estimate of 1.409 bln.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.