Grain > Commentary > 2-16-2024

2/16/2024

Feb 16, 2024

Soybeans traded solely higher and lead the way into the weekend with some nice bounces.  Corn was trading up to 4 higher early on but ended Friday with March and May 24 contracts slightly lower and 1-2 cents higher further out.  The overall vibe in the market was positive and it feels like traders might be ready to call the bluff of the managed money crowd's huge short positions.  Options activity suggested that maybe the tides were beginning to turn.  Historically, these record-sized short positions do not hold very incredibly long and we are close to meeting the expiration timeframe of what we have seen in the past.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today.  We did overlook yesterday's NOPA crush report.  Jan 2024 crush came in at 185.78 mln bushels.  That was below the trade guess of 189.928 mln bushels but still a record high for January of any year.  Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.507 bln pounds, well above the average analyst estimate of 1.409 bln.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.