2/16/2023

Feb 16, 2023


2/16/2023
Thursday's trade was featureless and, overall, extremely quiet for corn and soybeans.  Ranges were relatively tight and we spenting most of the day bouncing back and forth between 1-2 cents higher or lower throughout the session.  Following yesterday morning's announcement, the USDA confirmed another export sale this morning.  This sale was for 128,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year.  Weekly export sales were decent for corn, coming in at the towards the upper end of estimates at 1.025 mln tonnes sold last week.  Soybean sales were okay at 513k tonnes but most of these old crop sales were previous sales being switched from unknown to China as the destination.  The markets have been in some very quiet trade range since the USDA published their final production numbers back in January.  Also, there's been some issues over that same timeframe with the CFTC reporting the estimated fund positions.  The day-to-day, week-to-week price action has not been reflective of how little the estimated positions have changed.  This has contributed to the market struggling to find direction.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.