2/16/2021

Overnight markets gapped higher and traded up double digits rather quickly.  The cold weather was likely the biggest factor as the winter wheat crop likely had some damage.  The problem with that is we won't know the extent of that damage for quite some time yet.  The cold weather has also slowed farmer movement, which is a big deal in the eastern river market.  River conditions are poor due to ice.  Railroad performance is poor due to power issues in the cold.  None of which is good for an export market that is hungry for corn.  Corn is already inverted and this won't help matters any.  Other news today was rather quiet.  It felt like we got another round of corn business done off the PNW last Friday, but nothing got reported this morning.  Export inspections were out this morning, corn and wheat were good, beans were not.  The shift from beans to corn in the export market continues and that only intensifies as we go into March.  Soybean crush was 184.65 million bushels vs. 183.1 million estimate.  That was a record for the month and the 3rd biggest for any month.