Grain > Commentary > 2-16-2021

2/16/2021

Feb 16, 2021

2/16/2021
Overnight markets gapped higher and traded up double digits rather quickly.  The cold weather was likely the biggest factor as the winter wheat crop likely had some damage.  The problem with that is we won't know the extent of that damage for quite some time yet.  The cold weather has also slowed farmer movement, which is a big deal in the eastern river market.  River conditions are poor due to ice.  Railroad performance is poor due to power issues in the cold.  None of which is good for an export market that is hungry for corn.  Corn is already inverted and this won't help matters any.  Other news today was rather quiet.  It felt like we got another round of corn business done off the PNW last Friday, but nothing got reported this morning.  Export inspections were out this morning, corn and wheat were good, beans were not.  The shift from beans to corn in the export market continues and that only intensifies as we go into March.  Soybean crush was 184.65 million bushels vs. 183.1 million estimate.  That was a record for the month and the 3rd biggest for any month.
 

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.