2/15/2023

Feb 15, 2023


2/15/2023
After a quick visit to the top side of our long-term trading ranges to start the week, corn and soybeans continued to reverse lower on Wednesday. The general up and down, day-to-day price action continues across the grains. Corn has been inside a relatively small range for the past 6 months and the longer that carries on, the larger the eventual break-out. To start the day, the USDA confirmed the sale of 213,370 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year. Weekly ethanol figures showed production increasing from the prior week by 14,000 barrels/day to 1.014 million bpd. Continuing to lag behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for corn used for ethanol. Ethanol stocks also increased by 992,000 barrels to a total of 25.339 million bbls. NOPA January crush numbers were also released this morning and showed a crush of 170 million bushels vs 181.7 mln estimated. Soy oil stocks came in below estimates at 1.829 billion pounds. Yield reports out of Brazil are beginning to confirm what is expected to be an absolute monster crop.

Corn triple-top currently in hand.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.