2/15/2023

Feb 15, 2023


2/15/2023
After a quick visit to the top side of our long-term trading ranges to start the week, corn and soybeans continued to reverse lower on Wednesday. The general up and down, day-to-day price action continues across the grains. Corn has been inside a relatively small range for the past 6 months and the longer that carries on, the larger the eventual break-out. To start the day, the USDA confirmed the sale of 213,370 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year. Weekly ethanol figures showed production increasing from the prior week by 14,000 barrels/day to 1.014 million bpd. Continuing to lag behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for corn used for ethanol. Ethanol stocks also increased by 992,000 barrels to a total of 25.339 million bbls. NOPA January crush numbers were also released this morning and showed a crush of 170 million bushels vs 181.7 mln estimated. Soy oil stocks came in below estimates at 1.829 billion pounds. Yield reports out of Brazil are beginning to confirm what is expected to be an absolute monster crop.

Corn triple-top currently in hand.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.