2/14/2023

Feb 14, 2023


2/14/2023
Corn and soybeans appeared to be building strength for a move higher and extending the current ranges during the overnight session but trade was ready to sell at what would be considered the top-end of our price levels for 2023 (so far). Late yesterday, it was announced that Mexico would scrap a deadline to ban genetically modified corn for animal feed and industrial use but retained plans to prohibit use of the grain for human consumption. This removes a January 2024 deadline. When this was first announced by Mexico, the U.S. trade did not take it seriously and continued to call Mexico's bluff. Mexico is the single largest importer of U.S. corn. The ban would have hurt U.S. corn demand but Mexico really had no other reasonable options to source corn from. I'm sure this is the only example in history where something put on paper by a government body didn't make sense. As fast as the export sale announcements from the USDA were turning into part of our daily routine, they have gone silent just as quickly.

After trading their highest marks since early June yesterday, soybean charts are putting together a potential triple top. There is a similar look on the corn charts, as well.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.