2/14/2023

Feb 14, 2023


2/14/2023
Corn and soybeans appeared to be building strength for a move higher and extending the current ranges during the overnight session but trade was ready to sell at what would be considered the top-end of our price levels for 2023 (so far). Late yesterday, it was announced that Mexico would scrap a deadline to ban genetically modified corn for animal feed and industrial use but retained plans to prohibit use of the grain for human consumption. This removes a January 2024 deadline. When this was first announced by Mexico, the U.S. trade did not take it seriously and continued to call Mexico's bluff. Mexico is the single largest importer of U.S. corn. The ban would have hurt U.S. corn demand but Mexico really had no other reasonable options to source corn from. I'm sure this is the only example in history where something put on paper by a government body didn't make sense. As fast as the export sale announcements from the USDA were turning into part of our daily routine, they have gone silent just as quickly.

After trading their highest marks since early June yesterday, soybean charts are putting together a potential triple top. There is a similar look on the corn charts, as well.
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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.