2/14/2022

After trade put a risk premium onto the markets late in the session Friday, the situation (if there ever was one) seemed to diffuse between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.  Corn and soybeans surged higher on the open last night but strength withered away as the night ticked on.  Corn spent most of the day around 3-5 cents lower and soybeans 10-20 lower, before a late session rally sent corn to a higher finish on the day and lifted beans 20 cents off of their lows.  The timing of the rally was almost identical to Friday with another headline announcing Russian military movements along Ukraine border around 12:30 pm today.  Crude oil popped above $95 and the DOW dumped 300 points almost instantaneously.  This kind of simultaneous volatility across different market spaces is strictly money based and not fundamental or technical.  After a week of consistent 8 a.m. sales announcements, the USDA wire was quiet this morning.  Weekly export inspections showed 1.455 mln tonnes of corn inspected and 1.155 mln tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipments last week.  Corn slightly outperformed the top trade estimate.  To date, corn export shipment pace continues to close the gap on the USDA forecast, now behind target by 123 million bushels versus 130 million the previous week.  Soybean shipment pace is now behind by 6 million bushels versus matching the pace last week.

Another quick reaction to a Russia news headline in the markets today.