2/13/2024

The trend of extremely choppy trade continued on Tuesday and featured a little more volatility than what has been seen recently.  Corn traded a 5-6 range only to get stuck near unchanged by mid-day.  Soybeans found some higher trade just after the 8:30 re-open but fell back to 5-6 lower shortly after.  This week on the calendar tends to be bearish for majority of market spaces.  Chinese New Year, a key period for the South American Crops, and the USDA outlook forum all tend overlap in the middle of February.  A poor CPI print this morning (3.9% vs 3.7% expected) also had a macro affect.  If we can hold our current trading areas in the grains, we can put a positive twist on the market.  Until then, the focus needs to be getting basis set on any unpriced grain at home.

Soybeans have consolidated tightly over the past 8 sessions as the market tries to decide which direction it should go.  Fundamentals say a break out to the low side but the funds are nearing their second largest all time net short position in soybeans.