2/13/2024

Feb 13, 2024


The trend of extremely choppy trade continued on Tuesday and featured a little more volatility than what has been seen recently.  Corn traded a 5-6 range only to get stuck near unchanged by mid-day.  Soybeans found some higher trade just after the 8:30 re-open but fell back to 5-6 lower shortly after.  This week on the calendar tends to be bearish for majority of market spaces.  Chinese New Year, a key period for the South American Crops, and the USDA outlook forum all tend overlap in the middle of February.  A poor CPI print this morning (3.9% vs 3.7% expected) also had a macro affect.  If we can hold our current trading areas in the grains, we can put a positive twist on the market.  Until then, the focus needs to be getting basis set on any unpriced grain at home.

Soybeans have consolidated tightly over the past 8 sessions as the market tries to decide which direction it should go.  Fundamentals say a break out to the low side but the funds are nearing their second largest all time net short position in soybeans.   

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.