2/13/2023

Feb 13, 2023


2/13/2023
Argentine weather is the only excuse needed for the finds to pile into fresh length.  Overnight weakness gave way to buying going into the coffee break and that momentum was mostly sustained throughout the day.  December corn stubbornly sits just under the $6 level and has only traded a 15-cent range over the past month.  Once again, March corn ran into the top side of its wedge today but still not able to break out of its current range.  The previous 4 visits into the 685-690 range have been met with selling.  U.S. export inspections were within their expected ranges for corn and soybeans last week.  Corn still posting low numbers with 512k tonnes shipped.  Corn shipment pace is currently 155 million bushels short of the USDA target versus being short by 143 million bushels last week.  Soybean shipments were their lowest for the calendar year but still well above average for the week at 1.555 mln tonnes shipped.  Their shipment pace is currently 52 million bushels ahead of the USDA target versus 40 million bushels ahead last week.  Brazil harvest pace is slower than last year due to rains but with a much bigger crop, total harvested probably isn't as far behind as progress percentages would suggest.

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May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.