2/13/2023

Feb 13, 2023


2/13/2023
Argentine weather is the only excuse needed for the finds to pile into fresh length.  Overnight weakness gave way to buying going into the coffee break and that momentum was mostly sustained throughout the day.  December corn stubbornly sits just under the $6 level and has only traded a 15-cent range over the past month.  Once again, March corn ran into the top side of its wedge today but still not able to break out of its current range.  The previous 4 visits into the 685-690 range have been met with selling.  U.S. export inspections were within their expected ranges for corn and soybeans last week.  Corn still posting low numbers with 512k tonnes shipped.  Corn shipment pace is currently 155 million bushels short of the USDA target versus being short by 143 million bushels last week.  Soybean shipments were their lowest for the calendar year but still well above average for the week at 1.555 mln tonnes shipped.  Their shipment pace is currently 52 million bushels ahead of the USDA target versus 40 million bushels ahead last week.  Brazil harvest pace is slower than last year due to rains but with a much bigger crop, total harvested probably isn't as far behind as progress percentages would suggest.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.