Grain > Commentary > 2-1-2024

2/1/2024

Feb 01, 2024

After two days of higher trade that looked like the start of a rally, the market could not get off the ground on Thursday.  Corn managed to stay above the prior day's low, finishing just 1 lower after gaining a nickel the previous session.  Soybeans were sharply lower, closing 13-19 cents lower and it appears that the March contract will, once again, look to test what support there is at the $12 level.  We did have the USDA confirm a sale at 8 a.m. this morning and it was for 206,834 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  In the weekly export sales report, corn came in near the high end of expectations with 1.207 mln tonnes sold last week.  The PNW market has been active the past two weeks so it would not be a surprise to see another solid number for corn on this report next week.  Soybean sales were a marketing year low with only 165k tonnes sold.  A bright spot on the report were sales for soybean meal which totaled 494k tonnes.  This was the second highest weekly total in over a year.  This also comes following 2-year lows in soybean meal futures.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.