2/12/2024

Feb 12, 2024


Corn improves a penny after setting fresh lows overnight and soybeans put together a 9-cent bounce on Monday. Weekly export inspections came in on the high end of expectations with 880k tonnes of corn and 1.326 mln tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. Marketing year to date, corn shipments exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA forecast by 13 million bushels, up from 11 million bushels last week. Soybean inspections are currently 25 million bushels behind their required pace. The forecast for Brazil soybean production this year has some discrepancies between CONAB and USDA. CONAB is showing significant lower production and trade is definitely giving this some serious consideration. Soybeans have been mostly inside of a 30-cent range over the past 7 sessions and markets typically do not stay in one spot for long. The next move for soybeans will either be a nice recovery to fill upside gaps or a breakdown lower. We are in a good support area for corn. The corn market as a whole appears healthy and end users are willing to buy corn at current prices.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.