2/12/2024

Feb 12, 2024


Corn improves a penny after setting fresh lows overnight and soybeans put together a 9-cent bounce on Monday. Weekly export inspections came in on the high end of expectations with 880k tonnes of corn and 1.326 mln tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. Marketing year to date, corn shipments exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA forecast by 13 million bushels, up from 11 million bushels last week. Soybean inspections are currently 25 million bushels behind their required pace. The forecast for Brazil soybean production this year has some discrepancies between CONAB and USDA. CONAB is showing significant lower production and trade is definitely giving this some serious consideration. Soybeans have been mostly inside of a 30-cent range over the past 7 sessions and markets typically do not stay in one spot for long. The next move for soybeans will either be a nice recovery to fill upside gaps or a breakdown lower. We are in a good support area for corn. The corn market as a whole appears healthy and end users are willing to buy corn at current prices.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.