2/11/2022

Feb 11, 2022


2/11/2022
The paint was just about dry on a very exciting week for the markets when a newswire dropped claiming Russia would invade Ukraine beginning sometime next week.  Corn and soybean trade was much more reserved today relative to the start of the week leading up to 12:30pm today when the Russia/Ukraine headline came across.  Corn and soybeans both rallied around 12-14 cents on the news and then faded slightly into the close.  Despite the friendly news, neither corn or soybeans made an attempt at the prior day's highs and trade seemed content to see what the weekend would provide for direction on Sunday night.  The USDA announced three unique export sales this morning at 8 a.m.  These sales included: 108,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2022/23 marketing year; 128,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2021/22 marketing year; and 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year.  I know this may sound too opportunistic but a real Russia/Ukraine conflict may be what corn needs to work its way out of the shadow of soybeans and go out on its own.  This could also be very helpful for the wheat market.  Spring wheat rallied big between the months from April through October last year on the idea of big crop losses in North Dakota and Minnesota but there was already a surplus of wheat available globally and all the rally did was kill demand for U.S. wheat.  The Black Sea region is a large wheat exporting area and today's news has already given U.S. wheat a bid.

Below:
The markets react to the Russia/Ukraine headline dropping at 12:30. Crude oil, corn, and the DOW
chart.jpg

Read More News

Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.