2/11/2022

Feb 11, 2022


2/11/2022
The paint was just about dry on a very exciting week for the markets when a newswire dropped claiming Russia would invade Ukraine beginning sometime next week.  Corn and soybean trade was much more reserved today relative to the start of the week leading up to 12:30pm today when the Russia/Ukraine headline came across.  Corn and soybeans both rallied around 12-14 cents on the news and then faded slightly into the close.  Despite the friendly news, neither corn or soybeans made an attempt at the prior day's highs and trade seemed content to see what the weekend would provide for direction on Sunday night.  The USDA announced three unique export sales this morning at 8 a.m.  These sales included: 108,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2022/23 marketing year; 128,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2021/22 marketing year; and 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year.  I know this may sound too opportunistic but a real Russia/Ukraine conflict may be what corn needs to work its way out of the shadow of soybeans and go out on its own.  This could also be very helpful for the wheat market.  Spring wheat rallied big between the months from April through October last year on the idea of big crop losses in North Dakota and Minnesota but there was already a surplus of wheat available globally and all the rally did was kill demand for U.S. wheat.  The Black Sea region is a large wheat exporting area and today's news has already given U.S. wheat a bid.

Below:
The markets react to the Russia/Ukraine headline dropping at 12:30. Crude oil, corn, and the DOW
chart.jpg

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