2/11/2021

Soybeans are now priced off of the May futures.  Liquidation continued at the start of the overnight session with corn seeing 8 lower and beans 18 lower shortly after the open.  It looked like we were set to continue to trade disappointment from Tuesday's report but, this is a bull market, and the money was ready to buy the dip.  Corn and beans were both in the green going into the morning break.  China will likely be absent from the market for the next 7 days with the week-long Chinese New Year holiday starting tomorrow.  The weekly export sales report was very supportive today with corn (1.449 mln tonnes), bean (805K tonnes), and wheat (591K tonnes) sales all solidly above the top estimates.  Production estimates for S. America increased this week but it seems like the market ignored it.  Argentine government announced today that they will not be raising export taxes and there will be no limitations imposed on export sales volumes.  US soybeans are now at a premium to Brazil and if that premium get too big, Brazil beans are sure to make their way into the US.  The USDA's number of 35 mln bu of US bean imports would have to increase making any further cuts below the current bean carryout of 120 mln bu more difficult.