Grain > Commentary > 2-10-2026

2/10/2026

Feb 10, 2026

It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.  The good news on corn is that this report did not hurt us any, but it is going to be tough to sustain any kind of rally.  Right now, I would target the January 12th pre-report levels for targets (March corn at 4.48 futures). US soybean carryout was pegged at 350 million bushels vs the average trade guess of 347 million bushels.  World soybean carryout was placed at 125.51 MMT vs the average trade guess of 125.30 MMT.  There was no mention of potential additional demand to China, which is not a surprise.  The bean market has had a good rally on the Trump tweet from last week, but now we need additional proof that China business is getting done.  Beans will see a lot of volatility going forward so have some targets working.  Today's soybean close, up 12 cents, is still 15 cents off Friday's highs.  
 

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.