2/1/2023

Feb 01, 2023


2/1/2023
Two-sided trade in corn as we seem to have old and new crop contracts trading independently from each other in corn.  Soybeans saw some higher trade at the beginning of the overnight session but flipped negative quickly.  Spreads have been correcting this week after largely firming last week.  Daily lows were set shortly after 11 a.m. when money decided it was time to stop selling and start buying.  Corn found just enough buying interest on the front end to finish 1-5 higher.  We continue on trading mostly sideways within our ranges.  After confirming 112,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for delivery during the current marketing year on Monday morning, the USDA has been quiet at 8 a.m. the past two mornings.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed a bump of 16,000 barrels/day in production to 1.03 mln barrels/day and stocks falling by 635,000 bbls to 24.44 mln barrels.  For customers with basis-fixed and HTA contracts against the March futures, we have a little over 3 weeks to execute so please be thinking about what your plan is.  Whether you are going to roll to the May or price them out, have orders working.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.