Grain > Commentary > 2-1-2023

2/1/2023

Feb 01, 2023

2/1/2023
Two-sided trade in corn as we seem to have old and new crop contracts trading independently from each other in corn.  Soybeans saw some higher trade at the beginning of the overnight session but flipped negative quickly.  Spreads have been correcting this week after largely firming last week.  Daily lows were set shortly after 11 a.m. when money decided it was time to stop selling and start buying.  Corn found just enough buying interest on the front end to finish 1-5 higher.  We continue on trading mostly sideways within our ranges.  After confirming 112,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for delivery during the current marketing year on Monday morning, the USDA has been quiet at 8 a.m. the past two mornings.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed a bump of 16,000 barrels/day in production to 1.03 mln barrels/day and stocks falling by 635,000 bbls to 24.44 mln barrels.  For customers with basis-fixed and HTA contracts against the March futures, we have a little over 3 weeks to execute so please be thinking about what your plan is.  Whether you are going to roll to the May or price them out, have orders working.

PFT.png

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.