2/1/2023

Feb 01, 2023


2/1/2023
Two-sided trade in corn as we seem to have old and new crop contracts trading independently from each other in corn.  Soybeans saw some higher trade at the beginning of the overnight session but flipped negative quickly.  Spreads have been correcting this week after largely firming last week.  Daily lows were set shortly after 11 a.m. when money decided it was time to stop selling and start buying.  Corn found just enough buying interest on the front end to finish 1-5 higher.  We continue on trading mostly sideways within our ranges.  After confirming 112,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for delivery during the current marketing year on Monday morning, the USDA has been quiet at 8 a.m. the past two mornings.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed a bump of 16,000 barrels/day in production to 1.03 mln barrels/day and stocks falling by 635,000 bbls to 24.44 mln barrels.  For customers with basis-fixed and HTA contracts against the March futures, we have a little over 3 weeks to execute so please be thinking about what your plan is.  Whether you are going to roll to the May or price them out, have orders working.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.