2/1/2023

Feb 01, 2023


2/1/2023
Two-sided trade in corn as we seem to have old and new crop contracts trading independently from each other in corn.  Soybeans saw some higher trade at the beginning of the overnight session but flipped negative quickly.  Spreads have been correcting this week after largely firming last week.  Daily lows were set shortly after 11 a.m. when money decided it was time to stop selling and start buying.  Corn found just enough buying interest on the front end to finish 1-5 higher.  We continue on trading mostly sideways within our ranges.  After confirming 112,000 tonnes of corn to Japan for delivery during the current marketing year on Monday morning, the USDA has been quiet at 8 a.m. the past two mornings.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed a bump of 16,000 barrels/day in production to 1.03 mln barrels/day and stocks falling by 635,000 bbls to 24.44 mln barrels.  For customers with basis-fixed and HTA contracts against the March futures, we have a little over 3 weeks to execute so please be thinking about what your plan is.  Whether you are going to roll to the May or price them out, have orders working.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.