12/9/2020

Dec 09, 2020


12/9/2020
A solid rebound in the corn and soybean trade overnight carried over into the day session.  The renewed buying interest was sparked by expectations that the USDA will slimly cut the global carryover of the large grains.  The sharper gains on the soybean board were also assisted by rumors that some South American soybean exports were washed out.  We had a sale announcement this morning of 257,071 tonnes (10.1 mln bu) of corn to Mexico.  Mexico has been a fairly steady buyer of corn as of late and it still remains to be seen when China will re-enter the market with a purchase on either the corn or soybean side.  While most of the attention in our area has been focused solely on old crop marketing, Brazilian farmers have been busy selling soybeans for the 2021 and 2022 crops.  It is currently estimated that 15% of the 2022 Brazilian soybean crop is already priced.  I know an inverse market isn't the most attractive to sell into but, assuming we continue to follow the global trend of adding production area and increased yields, the current new crop prices for 2021 need a serious comparison to an operation's bottom line.  Reminder, the December WASDE report is due out tomorrow at 11 a.m.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.