12/8/2023

Dec 08, 2023


Friday looked like corn and soybeans were going to continue on their recovery path heading into the weekend. We started our day with another set of sale announcements from the USDA. These sales included 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 110,000 tonnes of soft red wheat to China, and 165,000 tonnes of corn to unknown all for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year. Corn was trading 3-4 higher and soybeans near 15 higher going into our monthly WASDE report. With the funds current positions, trade had no problem picking up some fresh length ahead of the report. The report offered little-to-no fresh fundamentals to trade and the new money sold-off during the remaining 2 hours of the session. Corn closed with losses of 1-3 cents and soybeans gave up 4-7 cents on the day.

A slight increase to the corn export forecast and no changes on the soybean balance sheet.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.