Grain > Commentary > 12-7-2021

12/7/2021

Dec 07, 2021

12/7/2021
A back-and-forth day of trade with a finish seeing corn and wheat higher and soybeans lower.  Soybeans jumped higher early after the 8:30 open with the USDA announcing 123,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year but were trading in the red within the first 30 minutes with the development of some helpful rain showers making their way across South America.  The EPA is expected to announce lowered ethanol blending mandates this afternoon and reject a large number of small refinery exemption requests.  The mandates are expected to be 12.6 billion gallons for 2020, 13.8 billion for 2021, and 15 billion for 2022 but there are a wide-range of estimates. Seems odd an administration that pushed renewable energy as part of its platform would be supportive of a lowered ethanol blending mandate.  This didn't seem to upset trade today with corn able to rally off its lows and finish modestly higher.  Estimates for Thursday's report show a small cut in corn carry out and a small increase in soybean carry out.  The USDA leaving the balance sheet unchanged into the new year would likely see the managed money leave grains 2022.  

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.