12/7/2021

Dec 07, 2021


12/7/2021
A back-and-forth day of trade with a finish seeing corn and wheat higher and soybeans lower.  Soybeans jumped higher early after the 8:30 open with the USDA announcing 123,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year but were trading in the red within the first 30 minutes with the development of some helpful rain showers making their way across South America.  The EPA is expected to announce lowered ethanol blending mandates this afternoon and reject a large number of small refinery exemption requests.  The mandates are expected to be 12.6 billion gallons for 2020, 13.8 billion for 2021, and 15 billion for 2022 but there are a wide-range of estimates. Seems odd an administration that pushed renewable energy as part of its platform would be supportive of a lowered ethanol blending mandate.  This didn't seem to upset trade today with corn able to rally off its lows and finish modestly higher.  Estimates for Thursday's report show a small cut in corn carry out and a small increase in soybean carry out.  The USDA leaving the balance sheet unchanged into the new year would likely see the managed money leave grains 2022.  

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.