Grain > Commentary > 12-7-2021

12/7/2021

Dec 07, 2021

12/7/2021
A back-and-forth day of trade with a finish seeing corn and wheat higher and soybeans lower.  Soybeans jumped higher early after the 8:30 open with the USDA announcing 123,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year but were trading in the red within the first 30 minutes with the development of some helpful rain showers making their way across South America.  The EPA is expected to announce lowered ethanol blending mandates this afternoon and reject a large number of small refinery exemption requests.  The mandates are expected to be 12.6 billion gallons for 2020, 13.8 billion for 2021, and 15 billion for 2022 but there are a wide-range of estimates. Seems odd an administration that pushed renewable energy as part of its platform would be supportive of a lowered ethanol blending mandate.  This didn't seem to upset trade today with corn able to rally off its lows and finish modestly higher.  Estimates for Thursday's report show a small cut in corn carry out and a small increase in soybean carry out.  The USDA leaving the balance sheet unchanged into the new year would likely see the managed money leave grains 2022.  

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.