12/7/2020

Dec 07, 2020


12/7/2020
Overnight markets had corn down 5 and beans down 10 on rain in South America, but the forecast going forward is not trend changing.  Weekly US soybean exports were near 84 mil bu versus 89 last week and 51 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,081 mil bu vs 638 last year.  About the time the export inspections were released the bean market battled and eventually got into green figures.  I still don't think the bean story is over, but December still doesn't look like a month where we will have to make new highs.  It feels like we are range bound for the time being.  Weekly US corn exports were near 29 mil bu versus 19 last year. Season to date exports are near 434 mil bu vs 257 last year.  We are just waiting for more new business to show up that shows China is still in need of US corn.  We do have a USDA report this Thursday, so keep your eye peeled for that.  I think corn and bean carryouts can continue to tighten, but I am not convinced that it will happen on this report.  As I said we might need another round of business before the USDA is willing to take that next step.
 

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.