12/6/2022

Dec 06, 2022


12/6/2022
A nice overnight rally in soybeans followed by the USDA announcing the soybean sales of 264,000 tonnes to China and 240,000 tonnes to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year push back to levels near our two month highs. If we are able to sustain a move near our September highs, that would be a great area to target for another old crop sale. Also, a hedged-to-arrive contract at $14.00 off the Nov. 23 should be more than just "thought about." Corn tried to manufacture some momentum after filling a downside gap yesterday. March 23 corn was able to trade 5 cents higher shortly after the morning break but spent most of the day in the range of 1-2 cents higher before flipping red. I'm still optimistic we will be able to work back towards the high 6's/low 7's on the board. There's always the possibility of everything happening quick so working sell orders in these areas for corn and soybeans is the best way to capture these values. This is especially true this week, considering how quiet the market has been over the past month and we have the CONAB report on Thursday and the monthly USDA WASDE report on Friday.

Solid gains and above the 200-day moving average for soybeans. We finished well below the high on the day after late session profit taking until buyer’s lifted trade by a nickel going into the close.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.