12/6/2022

Dec 06, 2022


12/6/2022
A nice overnight rally in soybeans followed by the USDA announcing the soybean sales of 264,000 tonnes to China and 240,000 tonnes to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year push back to levels near our two month highs. If we are able to sustain a move near our September highs, that would be a great area to target for another old crop sale. Also, a hedged-to-arrive contract at $14.00 off the Nov. 23 should be more than just "thought about." Corn tried to manufacture some momentum after filling a downside gap yesterday. March 23 corn was able to trade 5 cents higher shortly after the morning break but spent most of the day in the range of 1-2 cents higher before flipping red. I'm still optimistic we will be able to work back towards the high 6's/low 7's on the board. There's always the possibility of everything happening quick so working sell orders in these areas for corn and soybeans is the best way to capture these values. This is especially true this week, considering how quiet the market has been over the past month and we have the CONAB report on Thursday and the monthly USDA WASDE report on Friday.

Solid gains and above the 200-day moving average for soybeans. We finished well below the high on the day after late session profit taking until buyer’s lifted trade by a nickel going into the close.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.