12/6/2022

Dec 06, 2022


12/6/2022
A nice overnight rally in soybeans followed by the USDA announcing the soybean sales of 264,000 tonnes to China and 240,000 tonnes to unknown for the 2022/23 marketing year push back to levels near our two month highs. If we are able to sustain a move near our September highs, that would be a great area to target for another old crop sale. Also, a hedged-to-arrive contract at $14.00 off the Nov. 23 should be more than just "thought about." Corn tried to manufacture some momentum after filling a downside gap yesterday. March 23 corn was able to trade 5 cents higher shortly after the morning break but spent most of the day in the range of 1-2 cents higher before flipping red. I'm still optimistic we will be able to work back towards the high 6's/low 7's on the board. There's always the possibility of everything happening quick so working sell orders in these areas for corn and soybeans is the best way to capture these values. This is especially true this week, considering how quiet the market has been over the past month and we have the CONAB report on Thursday and the monthly USDA WASDE report on Friday.

Solid gains and above the 200-day moving average for soybeans. We finished well below the high on the day after late session profit taking until buyer’s lifted trade by a nickel going into the close.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.