12/6/2021

Dec 06, 2021


12/6/2021
Mixed finish in corn and mostly lower in soybeans as trade continues to be about positioning ahead of Thursday's December WASDE report.  News remains mostly recycled and routine but the USDA did announcement a sale this morning of 130,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2021/22 marketing year.  The weekly export inspections were all within their ranges of expectations with 758k tonnes of corn, 2.247 million tonnes of soybeans, and 246k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment.  Export pace for soybeans compared to the USDA target continues to improve and is now ahead of the target by 4 million bushels.  Corn export pace continues to be sluggish, now projected to be below target by 161 million bushels.  We will continue to monitor that pace as export logistics switch to corn after the start to the new year.

The December WASDE report is typically one the USDA punts on and our balance sheet carries over into the new year with little-to-no changes. With the front month corn trading around the top of a 4 month range and the front month for soybeans near the top of a 2 month range, there would need to be some obvious bullish numbers on Thursday to make the report friendly. Strongly consider some sales here.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.