12/5/2023

Dec 05, 2023


After displaying some strength overnight and in the early portion of the day session, soybeans continued on their trend lower and printed fresh lows for the move and their lowest quotes since mid-October. Corn and wheat both held steady in the 1-5 cent higher range throughout the day as they look to continue trending higher and reverse the charts towards a more positive outlook. China has been an active buyer of wheat as of recent. Yesterday, the USDA announced three export sales for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year: 440,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China; 267,044 tonnes of corn to Mexico; and 183,000 tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines. This was followed by another 198,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China announced this morning. Export inspections for corn came in above expectations with 1.158 mln tonnes shipped last week. Soybean slightly underperformed at 1.109 mln tonnes. Shipment pace for soybeans is now 13 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 30 million short last week. A very quick increase in corn shipment pace has corn 19 million bushels behind target versus 38 million a week ago.

Soybeans spent the first half of November rallying mostly on weather in South America but as conditions and forecasts improved, that money has now been completely washed out. This is likely an area we will see funds and spec look to re-own futures.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.