12/5/2023

Dec 05, 2023


After displaying some strength overnight and in the early portion of the day session, soybeans continued on their trend lower and printed fresh lows for the move and their lowest quotes since mid-October. Corn and wheat both held steady in the 1-5 cent higher range throughout the day as they look to continue trending higher and reverse the charts towards a more positive outlook. China has been an active buyer of wheat as of recent. Yesterday, the USDA announced three export sales for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year: 440,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China; 267,044 tonnes of corn to Mexico; and 183,000 tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines. This was followed by another 198,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat to China announced this morning. Export inspections for corn came in above expectations with 1.158 mln tonnes shipped last week. Soybean slightly underperformed at 1.109 mln tonnes. Shipment pace for soybeans is now 13 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 30 million short last week. A very quick increase in corn shipment pace has corn 19 million bushels behind target versus 38 million a week ago.

Soybeans spent the first half of November rallying mostly on weather in South America but as conditions and forecasts improved, that money has now been completely washed out. This is likely an area we will see funds and spec look to re-own futures.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.