12/5/2022

After an overnight session that featured corn trading steady 1-2 higher and soybeans 8-12 higher, weakness set in shortly after the morning break. There has been little-to-nothing feeding the bull since we ended harvest and the market is taking a step back to evaluate the big picture. There is definitely a portrait being painted of a demand problem for corn. Export demand is stagnant and we really need something beyond routine business to keep prices at their current levels. The market's job is to move around to keep buying and selling stimulated. Weekly export inspections were average for soybeans at 1.722 mln tonnes shipped. Corn inspections came in at 524k tonne and continue on the upswing after falling in the gutter early November. Corn shipment pace is now 162 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 154 million bushels last week. Soybeans improved from 52 million to 34 million bushels behind the pace needed to mee their USDA target. Thursday and Friday are our next best chances at fresh fundamentals with the Brazil CONAB update and USDA monthly WASDE report.

Today, March corn completed a 50% retracement from the October high and filled the first of two downside gaps that we discussed on Friday. Trade gave the look of wanting to buy the gap fill and we finished the session a couple pennies above the bottom-side of the former gap.