12/5/2022

Dec 05, 2022


12/5/2022
After an overnight session that featured corn trading steady 1-2 higher and soybeans 8-12 higher, weakness set in shortly after the morning break. There has been little-to-nothing feeding the bull since we ended harvest and the market is taking a step back to evaluate the big picture. There is definitely a portrait being painted of a demand problem for corn. Export demand is stagnant and we really need something beyond routine business to keep prices at their current levels. The market's job is to move around to keep buying and selling stimulated. Weekly export inspections were average for soybeans at 1.722 mln tonnes shipped. Corn inspections came in at 524k tonne and continue on the upswing after falling in the gutter early November. Corn shipment pace is now 162 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 154 million bushels last week. Soybeans improved from 52 million to 34 million bushels behind the pace needed to mee their USDA target. Thursday and Friday are our next best chances at fresh fundamentals with the Brazil CONAB update and USDA monthly WASDE report.

Today, March corn completed a 50% retracement from the October high and filled the first of two downside gaps that we discussed on Friday. Trade gave the look of wanting to buy the gap fill and we finished the session a couple pennies above the bottom-side of the former gap.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.