12/30/2022

Dec 30, 2022


12/30/2022
Soybeans appeared to be making another strong move overnight, with some euphoric buying coming in shortly at the coffee break. Holiday trade has made it seemingly easy for soybeans to trade within reach of contract highs and the bull is focused solely on Argentine weather and ignoring a huge soybean crop in Brazil. Spillover support from soybeans and moving average support tried to push March corn out of its wedge pattern to the high side early in the session but had fallen back to unchanged by mid-day. Corn and soybeans continued to fade into the close. The USDA confirmed the sale of 186,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year. Market upside feels extremely limited if we sustain these price levels into our final production numbers on January 12. Cash basis continues to be defensive following another day of strong board trade. Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed on Monday, January 2, 2023. We would like to thank all of our customers and patrons for a wonderful 2022 and we look forward to the opportunity to provide our services to you in 2023.

March corn narrowly escaped an outside reversal lower to end the year. We traded through some long-term overhead resistance but could not hold. We closed below trend-line resistance and just above the 200-day moving average. We are setting up for a breakout shortly after we turn the calendar to 2023.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.