12/30/2021

Dec 30, 2021


12/30/2021
Corn and soybeans down hard one day prior to the final trading day of 2021.  Funds and speculator money were the big buyers during this rally and with everybody long, there were no buyers left and the market was caught long.  Algorithms kicked in to race each other out of length.  Adding some fuel to the fire today, weather forecasts for South America improved greatly, with dry areas now showing possibilities of receiving over two inches of rain, triggering further sell-off.  The only bright spot in our weekly export sales was corn, which outperformed the top-end of trade estimates with 1.25 million tonnes sold.  Soybean and meal sales disappointed and came in below target with 524k tonnes of beans and 69.5k tonnes of meal sold.  The report garnered some early buying interest for corn but the market eventually rolled over, giving into spill-over weakness from soybeans.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed tomorrow for New Year's Eve.  Grain markets will operate a regular schedule and you have the option to price grain tomorrow if desired.  We would like to thank all of our patrons and customers for another fantastic year and we look forward to serving your needs in 2022.  Yearly grain price comparison off of today's close: March corn futures +1.12, basis +0.23, cash price +$1.35/bushel; March soybean futures +0.27, basis +0.32, cash price +$0.59/bushel

Been a while since we looked at the drought monitor.  The grain belt is heading into 2022 in much better shape compared to how we started 2021.
drought-monitor.jpg

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.