12/30/2021

Dec 30, 2021


12/30/2021
Corn and soybeans down hard one day prior to the final trading day of 2021.  Funds and speculator money were the big buyers during this rally and with everybody long, there were no buyers left and the market was caught long.  Algorithms kicked in to race each other out of length.  Adding some fuel to the fire today, weather forecasts for South America improved greatly, with dry areas now showing possibilities of receiving over two inches of rain, triggering further sell-off.  The only bright spot in our weekly export sales was corn, which outperformed the top-end of trade estimates with 1.25 million tonnes sold.  Soybean and meal sales disappointed and came in below target with 524k tonnes of beans and 69.5k tonnes of meal sold.  The report garnered some early buying interest for corn but the market eventually rolled over, giving into spill-over weakness from soybeans.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed tomorrow for New Year's Eve.  Grain markets will operate a regular schedule and you have the option to price grain tomorrow if desired.  We would like to thank all of our patrons and customers for another fantastic year and we look forward to serving your needs in 2022.  Yearly grain price comparison off of today's close: March corn futures +1.12, basis +0.23, cash price +$1.35/bushel; March soybean futures +0.27, basis +0.32, cash price +$0.59/bushel

Been a while since we looked at the drought monitor.  The grain belt is heading into 2022 in much better shape compared to how we started 2021.
drought-monitor.jpg

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.