12/30/2021

Dec 30, 2021


12/30/2021
Corn and soybeans down hard one day prior to the final trading day of 2021.  Funds and speculator money were the big buyers during this rally and with everybody long, there were no buyers left and the market was caught long.  Algorithms kicked in to race each other out of length.  Adding some fuel to the fire today, weather forecasts for South America improved greatly, with dry areas now showing possibilities of receiving over two inches of rain, triggering further sell-off.  The only bright spot in our weekly export sales was corn, which outperformed the top-end of trade estimates with 1.25 million tonnes sold.  Soybean and meal sales disappointed and came in below target with 524k tonnes of beans and 69.5k tonnes of meal sold.  The report garnered some early buying interest for corn but the market eventually rolled over, giving into spill-over weakness from soybeans.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be closed tomorrow for New Year's Eve.  Grain markets will operate a regular schedule and you have the option to price grain tomorrow if desired.  We would like to thank all of our patrons and customers for another fantastic year and we look forward to serving your needs in 2022.  Yearly grain price comparison off of today's close: March corn futures +1.12, basis +0.23, cash price +$1.35/bushel; March soybean futures +0.27, basis +0.32, cash price +$0.59/bushel

Been a while since we looked at the drought monitor.  The grain belt is heading into 2022 in much better shape compared to how we started 2021.
drought-monitor.jpg

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.