12/30/2020

We sound like a broken record this week.  Another night of mixed, lower trade and higher finish on the day trade.  News came out early in the night session that a deal was negotiated to end a 20-day long port strike in Argentina.  Beans traded 15 lower as an immediate reaction but recovered during the night to go into the morning break 8 lower.  Argentina also announced today that they will halt corn exports until March 1 to ensure domestic supply due to dry conditions.  This may sound bullish but they are still expected meet 90% of their export forecast.  Due to the strike, Argentina has a back-log of about 160 vessels waiting to be loaded and the halt on corn exports is likely their government's way to prioritize soybean and bean meal exports (33% export tax on soy vs 12% on corn).  The daily talk is China making new purchases of US commodities but we have not seen any official sale announcements.  Corn continues to gather support from demand, Argentina weather, and a lack of farmer selling.  Soybeans traded above the 1300 mark and will most likely continue higher in search of the rationing price point.  Wheat futures found good buying interest today as concern builds over the winter wheat crop condition in the Black Sea region.