Grain > Commentary > 12-3-2021

12/3/2021

Dec 03, 2021

12/3/2021
Corn and soybeans go into the weekend higher with a flood of speculator money coming in to buy.  Fundamentals have not changed much, if it all, but the USDA did put together a nice string of soybean export sales announcements this week including another 122,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year confirmed this morning.  Export sales and inspections for soybeans are currently ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA target but the situation could change quickly with the Brazil harvest and export season likely to get an early start.  There is some chatter about isolated dryness in South America but conditions have been almost perfect so far with farmers in Brazil's largest soy producing state Mato Grosso expecting a record crop.  If we learned anything this year, "dryness" should probably not be a bullish positioning point.  Corn played follow-the-leader today behind soybeans and we are looking for a wakeup call on the PNW market for corn like we saw in soybeans this week.  Cash closes for the week:  cash corn down 5 cents, cash soybeans up 14.  New crop closes: corn down 10 cents and soybeans down 6.  The lottery/casino action in wheat and oats continued today with all posting double digit losses, taking back most of the prior day's gains.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.