12/3/2021

Dec 03, 2021


12/3/2021
Corn and soybeans go into the weekend higher with a flood of speculator money coming in to buy.  Fundamentals have not changed much, if it all, but the USDA did put together a nice string of soybean export sales announcements this week including another 122,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2021/22 marketing year confirmed this morning.  Export sales and inspections for soybeans are currently ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA target but the situation could change quickly with the Brazil harvest and export season likely to get an early start.  There is some chatter about isolated dryness in South America but conditions have been almost perfect so far with farmers in Brazil's largest soy producing state Mato Grosso expecting a record crop.  If we learned anything this year, "dryness" should probably not be a bullish positioning point.  Corn played follow-the-leader today behind soybeans and we are looking for a wakeup call on the PNW market for corn like we saw in soybeans this week.  Cash closes for the week:  cash corn down 5 cents, cash soybeans up 14.  New crop closes: corn down 10 cents and soybeans down 6.  The lottery/casino action in wheat and oats continued today with all posting double digit losses, taking back most of the prior day's gains.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.