12/29/2022

Dec 29, 2022


12/29/2022
Wheat was sharply lower, keeping corn and soybeans in check today. Corn spent the session in lower trade and soybeans finished 1-3 cents better after trading 7-10 higher overnight. We now have one trading day remaining in 2022 and tomorrow could very well be unexciting with most in the market probably taking an early weekend. Grains have put together a nice rally over the last week and a half but we are now pushed up against some long-term resistance areas and some drifting lower is expected to start the new calendar year ahead of our final 2022/23 production numbers from the USDA on January 12. This rally has also caused cash basis to slip by 10-15 cents in corn and soybeans, further confirmation that this move in the market is about money positioning and technicals. The weekly ethanol report was a little more negative than anticipated. Production fell by 66,000 barrels/day to 963,000 bpd and stocks increased by 569,000 barrels to 24.64 million barrels. The markets will trade a full day tomorrow and then will remain closed until 8:30 am on January 3rd. Glacial Plains will be closed on January 2nd for New Year's.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.