Grain > Commentary > 12-29-2022

12/29/2022

Dec 29, 2022

12/29/2022
Wheat was sharply lower, keeping corn and soybeans in check today. Corn spent the session in lower trade and soybeans finished 1-3 cents better after trading 7-10 higher overnight. We now have one trading day remaining in 2022 and tomorrow could very well be unexciting with most in the market probably taking an early weekend. Grains have put together a nice rally over the last week and a half but we are now pushed up against some long-term resistance areas and some drifting lower is expected to start the new calendar year ahead of our final 2022/23 production numbers from the USDA on January 12. This rally has also caused cash basis to slip by 10-15 cents in corn and soybeans, further confirmation that this move in the market is about money positioning and technicals. The weekly ethanol report was a little more negative than anticipated. Production fell by 66,000 barrels/day to 963,000 bpd and stocks increased by 569,000 barrels to 24.64 million barrels. The markets will trade a full day tomorrow and then will remain closed until 8:30 am on January 3rd. Glacial Plains will be closed on January 2nd for New Year's.

outlook.png

Read More News

10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.