12/29/2021

Corn traded around a 10-cent range and soybeans traded 20 cents on a day that featured some volatility with not much of a net result.  So far this week, volume has been very front heavy, indicating that trade is largely spec money as volume continues to fade.  Harvest is underway in Brazil's largest soy state of Mato Grasso, which produces an estimated 25% of Brazil's soybean crop.  This is 3-week jump start on harvest for this same season compared to last year.  The situation in Brazil indicates that they have an excellent crop with 80% overall estimated to be in good shape.  This doesn't mean the other 20% is a loss.  With the most important soy state of Mato Grasso in good condition, I expect that area to make up for what others may have lost due to dry conditions.  Similar to what we saw in the US crop with the Eastern Corn Belt more than picking up the slack for the Western Corn Belt.  Ethanol production was slightly up from the previous week, increasing by 8,000 barrels/day to 1.06 bpd.  Ethanol stocks were off 29,000 barrels to 20.68 million barrels total.  The estimated total use of corn for ethanol for this marketing year to date is on pace to hit the USDA target.  China has been quiet as of late, almost dormant, and likely waiting to see what kind of crop Brazil has.  Reminder:  Glacial Plains will be closed Friday, New Year's Eve.  Markets will be open and we can work a sell order on your behalf if desired.

Never too soon to think beyond 2022.  December 2023 corn has been trading steady above 500’0 and November 2023 Soybeans continue to trade at or near 1200’0.