12/28/2023

Dec 28, 2023


Soybeans are now priced off of the March futures...

Very thin holiday trade and continued yo-yo price action sees corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans down 6-11 cents. One day ahead of final notice day, January soybean spreads were extremely volatile with 6-7 cent ranges on the day and they appeared to cap off a month-long trend of tightening. Soybean demand has the looks of currently being satisfied but any fresh/new demand from China for US soybeans will change the landscape of the market. The market will either need to rally or invert to ration demand (or both). According to the USDA balance sheet, we still have a relatively tight supply of soybeans that are available. We are still optimistic at the prospect of some corn export business getting done in January but we are already seeing our typical shipment timeframe missing out on opportunity. Best to reward any short rallies in corn that poke into the 485-500 futures range prior to the January 12 report.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.